Soda ash 24-year data inventory and 25-year outlook
阅读次数：7 更新时间：2024-12-30
In 2024, soda ash manufacturers' inventory reached a high level, market prices continued to fall, and some manufacturers continued to lose money in the second half of the year. In 2024, the supply and demand of the soda ash market will increase, but the supply growth rate is faster than the demand growth rate, and the supply and demand pattern will tend to develop in excess. In 2025, there is still new production capacity to be released, and the soda ash market may remain under pressure.
Soda ash imports in 2024 are expected to increase quarter-on-quarter, mainly in the first quarter; Export volume is expected to be lower than the previous half of the year, limited exports.
In the third quarter of 2023, the domestic supply of goods is extremely tight, some downstream procurement is difficult, and the price has risen to a higher level, some downstream and traders have increased the purchase of imported goods, and some downstream have increased the purchase of 2024 orders in advance, mainly focusing on the delivery in the first quarter of 2024. In the second half of the year, the price of domestic soda ash fell significantly, the price advantage of overseas soda ash supply was not obvious, and the import volume was significantly reduced. Soda ash imports are expected to be 979,000 tons in 2024, an increase of 43.3% from the previous month.
In 2024, the export volume of soda ash continued to decline, mainly because of poor foreign demand, and the export volume of soda ash showed a low trend before and then a high trend during the year. From January to June, the price of domestic soda ash rose after falling, and the price of soda ash in overseas main producing areas is still high, and the export order of domestic soda ash manufacturers is generally accepted. From July to September, domestic soda ash prices fell rapidly, while foreign prices were relatively stable, export price advantages appeared, soda ash manufacturers increased export orders, and exports increased in the second half of the year. Soda ash exports are expected to be 1.208 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 18.9% from the previous quarter.
In 2024, the supply of soda ash market does not match the growth rate of demand, and the cost pressure of some downstream products is relatively large, the enthusiasm for soda ash procurement is not high, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continues to rise during the year. By the end of 2024, the overall inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.439 million tons, an increase of 318.0% from the previous quarter; The average weekly inventory in 2024 is 1.033 million tons, an increase of 223.8% over 2023.
From the perspective of seasonal fluctuation characteristics of inventory, the general high point appears in the first half of the year, the low point appears in the second half of the year, and the seasonal rule will be broken in 2024. In the first half of the year, with the Spring Festival holiday, the transportation is not smooth, and after the Spring Festival, it takes some time for some small chemical plants to start and resume, the soda ash manufacturers often appear the phenomenon of accumulation, the third quarter soda ash manufacturers are more concentrated maintenance, and the downstream is affected by the seasonal impact of "gold nine silver ten", the market often appears the mismatch of supply and demand, and the inventory low appears at this stage. However, the inventory change in 2024 broke this law and showed an overall growth trend, the low point of inventory in 2024 was 357,000 tons before the Spring Festival, and the high point of inventory was 1.588 million tons in early November.
In 2025, the soda ash market will show a trend of low before and high after, the average price will decline, and the market deduction will be affected by the changes in supply and demand and the macro atmosphere in the stage. Detailed analysis and data forecast will be presented in the Annual Report on China Soda Ash Market 2024-2025.
For soda ash products, the most important factor affecting the market in 2025 is supply, and the new capacity of soda ash will be released from 2023 to 2025, and the supply pressure will increase in 2025. In 2025, new production capacity is planned to be further reduced, but the new production capacity in the past two years is high, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is approaching a record high, which will put pressure on the supply in 2025. With the decline in domestic prices, imports are expected to decrease, and under the pressure of losses, the industry is expected to lower the load.
From the demand side, soda ash demand growth or slowdown in 2025, the main growth point of demand in the new energy industry. Affected by the downturn in the market, some photovoltaic glass production lines that have been built in 2024 have been put into operation, and some photovoltaic glass production lines have ignition plans in 2025, and it is expected that the consumption of photovoltaic glass for soda ash will increase slightly in 2025. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained growth, the consumption of lithium carbonate has increased, and the demand for lithium carbonate for soda ash is still expected to increase. In 2025, the production line of the kiln expires, and the production capacity of float glass will continue to shrink, and the consumption of soda ash in the float glass industry is expected to decrease. With the decline of domestic soda ash prices, soda ash export price advantages appear, soda ash exports are expected to further increase.
As a futures variety, soda ash has financial attributes in addition to commodity attributes and is greatly affected by macroeconomic aspects. The overseas interest rate cut cycle has started in 2024, and there is still room for further interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in domestic monetary policy. However, from the perspective of the real estate cycle, despite the support of various policies, the prosperity of the real estate market has declined significantly. At the Political Bureau meeting in September 2024, it was mentioned that the construction of commercial housing should be strictly controlled, the stock should be optimized, the quality should be improved, and the loans for "white list" projects should be increased. Strictly controlling the increment will have a certain impact on the future demand for building materials and commodities. Increase the lending of white list projects, or form a certain support for the short and medium term float glass demand. The domestic policy trend in 2025 will still form an expected guide to the trend of commodities and affect the price trend of soda ash. (Zhuo Chuang Consulting)
Epoch Master Global Business(Jiangsu)Inc.
Epoch Master Industry Pte. Ltd. 
