Last week (2024.3.29-2024.4.3), the domestic soda ash market price declined weakly. As of last Wednesday (April 3), the current average market price of light soda ash was 1,906 yuan/ton, which was 20 yuan/ton lower than the price last Thursday; the average market price of heavy soda ash was 2,031 yuan/ton, which was lower than the previous price. The price dropped by 23 yuan/ton on Thursday. Domestic soda ash manufacturers have recently increased their soda ash supply, and early maintenance manufacturers have recently begun to increase their responsibilities. The overall soda ash supply has increased. Affected by the recent new orders for soda ash, manufacturers are mainly issuing early orders. At present, the spot inventory of soda ash manufacturers is still on the rise. Recently, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users is average, and the operation of light alkali downstream users is average. Industries such as lithium carbonate are currently operating at a low level, and the demand for soda ash is relatively limited. Glass factories downstream of heavy alkali are currently mainly continuing to purchase. Manufacturers in the Shahe area have just needed to restock in the near future, and other areas Manufacturers all have small replenishment needs. On the whole, the supply of domestic soda ash manufacturers is still relatively sufficient, while the downstream demand is relatively average, and most of them are just in need of replenishment. The overall enthusiasm for purchasing goods is average, and they are still waiting to see the market trend.
Supply: As of the 14th week of 2024, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 42.65 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 30.66 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash factories, with a total operating capacity of 16.67 million tons; 11 ammonia and alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 12.21 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total production capacity of 4.88 million tons). Last week, Qinghai Development Investment Co., Ltd. and Qinghai Kunlun soda ash plants were still at low production. Shandong Haitian, Jinchang Ammonia Alkali Source, Southern Alkali Industry, and China Salt Kunshan soda ash plants continued to undergo maintenance. The overall soda ash industry operating rate was 87.22%. At present, the supply of domestic soda ash manufacturers is still sufficient, and manufacturers are actively shipping.
In terms of cost: Last week, the cost of the domestic soda ash industry remained basically stable. The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers was approximately 1,481.76 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%. The industrial salt market trend declined last week, mainly reflected in the mineral salt market. The port market continues to decline, and the thermal coal market price is mixed. The center of gravity of the synthetic ammonia market is lower, and prices are falling together. The price of raw materials for soda ash continues to fall, leading to a decrease in industry costs.
In terms of profits: Last week, profits in the domestic soda ash industry mainly increased. Last week, the overall production cost of the domestic soda ash industry declined, the overall market price was weak and stable, and the industry's profit margin increased. Last week, the average gross profit of the soda ash industry was approximately 403.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.40%.
In terms of inventory: Last week, the domestic soda ash industry started to go up, and most of the new orders were mainly due to rigid demand. The overall soda ash manufacturers' spot inventory increased slightly. As of April 3, according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies is expected to be approximately 770,200 tons, an increase of 7.21% from the previous week.
Futures: Last week, the price range of SA2409 futures, the main contract in the futures market, was mainly consolidated. Overall, the continued improvement of the macro environment may bring positive support to the soda ash futures market.
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