Market overview：
This week (2024.4.12-2024.4.18) the domestic soda ash market price range is mainly consolidated. As of this Thursday (April 18), the current average market price of light soda ash is 1,907 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton from last Thursday; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 2,033 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton from last week. Fourth, the price increased by 5 yuan/ton. Domestic soda ash manufacturers are currently mainly continuing production. There are many soda ash maintenance plans in the near future. Some manufacturers have reduced their load and production as planned, and the overall supply has not changed much. The new production capacity is still mainly released by the continuous release of Alxa and Jinshan soda ash plants. At present, Alxa Phase 1 and Line 4 have not yet completed commissioning, while Jinshan’s new production capacity has basically been fully released. This week, downstream users continued to mainly receive goods according to orders, and early orders were still relatively sufficient, with multiple orders placed for purchase. In some areas, downstream users of light alkali are more enthusiastic in purchasing than users of heavy alkali, and prices of light and heavy alkali are inverted in some areas. Taken together, domestic soda ash manufacturers continue to produce and ship orders according to order, and the overall supply is relatively sufficient; downstream users are more optimistic about purchasing enthusiasm and continue to need goods in the near future, and glass factories still have replenishment needs.
Supply: As of the 16th week of 2024, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 43.15 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 32.21 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash factories, with a total operating capacity of 16.01 million tons; 11 ammonia and alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 11.98 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total production capacity of 4.22 million tons). This week, Qinghai Development Investment, Qinghai Kunlun, Tianjin Bohua, and Xuzhou Fengcheng soda ash plants are still operating at low output; Shandong Haitian soda ash plants have completed maintenance and are gradually recovering; Hangzhou Longshan, Henan Junhua, and Henan Jintian soda ash plants are still under maintenance Status, the overall soda ash industry operating rate is 82.33%. Domestic soda ash manufacturers have recently been full of orders, and most of them continue to ship according to orders; in some areas, light soda ash shipments are better than heavy soda ash, and the prices of light and heavy soda ash have been inverted.
In terms of demand: Recently, downstream users have continued to receive goods according to orders. The current demand of light alkali downstream users has changed little. The daily glass, sodium metabisulfite, sodium chloride, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries have maintained stable operations. The demand for soda ash is mainly maintained at a stable level; the glass factories downstream of heavy alkali currently have low soda ash spot stocks in the factory, and they are expected to continue to purchase them. Moreover, photovoltaic glass factories continue to have new production capacity put into production, and the demand for soda ash is expected to increase.
In terms of cost: The cost of the domestic soda ash industry continued to decline this week. The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers was approximately 1,467.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42%. This week, the sea salt market transactions were stable, while the mine salt market declined sporadically. The demand for replenishment is released in stages, and the market price of thermal coal rises. Under the negative supply and demand side, the focus of the synthetic ammonia market fell back. The price of soda ash raw materials has been mixed, with the overall trend of weakness.
In terms of profit: this week, the profits of the domestic soda ash industry mainly increased. The price of raw materials in the domestic soda ash industry has declined, and the production cost of the soda ash industry has subsequently declined. However, the domestic soda ash market price has increased slightly, and the profit margin of the soda ash industry has increased. The average gross profit of the soda ash industry this week was approximately 407.24 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.46%.
In terms of inventory: Domestic soda ash manufacturers continued to ship this week, early orders are still relatively sufficient, and overall manufacturers' spot inventories continue to decline. As of April 18, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies is expected to be approximately 723,300 tons, a decrease of 3.71% from last week.
Futures: The price of SA2409 futures, the main contract in the futures market, has risen sharply this week. Affected by factors such as the boost from macroeconomic policies and the narrowing gap between supply and demand in the spot market, domestic soda ash futures have been mainly rising in recent days. (Baichuan Yingfu)
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