PVC point of view: shock, no trend market

Strategy: None, 09 short-term 5900-6100 shock; large range 5500-6500 yuan, the upper price needs a strong driver, the fundamental data is shock.

Logic: The spot valuation is not high, but the driving force is still weak, especially the social inventory pressure is high, and the market premium is high. Based on the basis, cost, and import and export valuations, there is not much room above the market; the demand data in 2023 is better. The demand for PVC is resilient, and we are cautious about the demand growth in 2024. The current demand is weaker than expected. After the balance sheet is revised, the inventory pressure increases; for export, it also depends on the price. If the price increases too much, foreign speculative demand will also go away. In terms of supply, there is still room for improvement in both construction starts and output; the overall inventory pressure is still high, and there is no basis for high valuations; in addition, caustic soda prices will generally strengthen in the second half of the year, which will also put pressure on PVC valuations; long-term Look, the price fluctuation of PVC in 2024 is still not high, similar to the price fluctuation of 5500-6500 in 2023, and there may be a new low in the first half of the year; the price of caustic soda is in a large range of 2300-3000; pay attention to the upper and lower edges of the range, PVC is mainly high, and caustic soda is mainly low. （FIRST FUTURES）